Japanese and Korean stock markets soared! Why did A-shares rise slightly today?

2024-03-30

The A-shares were really disappointing today! The reason is that although the A-shares had a good opening, they ended up with an undesirable close; especially the Shanghai Composite Index (SHSE) opened high and then fell sharply, plunging during the session and setting a new low for this round of adjustment, which is really frustrating!

It's important to note that today's Asia-Pacific stock markets experienced a collective rebound, with the Japanese stock market surging by more than 10% during the session; the South Korean stock market surged by as much as 5.62%; even the Taiwan Weighted Index rose by more than 4%; yet, our A-shares opened high and then fell sharply, with the SHSE setting a new low for the adjustment again, but fortunately, the market was supported and lifted at the end of the session, ultimately closing slightly higher. Why did this happen?

Reason one: A-shares have a peculiar condition of "following the decline but not the rise" with the global stock markets. When the global stock markets continue to rise, it has no relation to A-shares, but when the global stock markets fall, they will inevitably drag A-shares down. Similar to today, when the Japanese and Korean stock markets surged, A-shares still went their own way and fell to new lows, all due to this peculiar condition.

Reason two: Today, A-shares were hit by three major financial sectors, insurance, securities, and banking, all of which opened high and then fell sharply, especially the insurance sector, which saw a significant volume drop and a big bearish candlestick at high levels; China Pacific Insurance and China Life Insurance, among others, saw significant volume drops, making the three major financial sectors one of the strongest bears in today's A-shares.

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Reason three: The previous hot sectors experienced a significant volume drop, with the public transportation sector plummeting across the board, and the Public Transportation Index plunging by more than 9%; previously high-flying stocks like Dazhong Transportation, Jinjiang Online, Jiangxi Longyun, and Heilongjiang Transportation all hit the limit down; the sudden drop of hot spots severely hit the market and investors' confidence, bringing emotional and capital selling pressure to today's A-shares.

Reason four: It's a typical trap to lure investors. Don't be fooled by the widespread gains in individual stocks today, but this widespread gain is illusory and insecure! The reason is that there is no volume increase in individual stocks, and the turnover in both the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets decreased by nearly ten billion compared to the previous period. The A-shares volume was already insufficient, and today's widespread gain with reduced volume is clearly a trap to lure more investors, just to cover up the main force's high selling.

How will A-shares perform tomorrow?

With the SHSE setting a new low again today, the weighty sectors collectively falling, and the hot spots plummeting, this situation is unfavorable for the trend of A-shares tomorrow, and the outlook for tomorrow remains pessimistic.Predicting that the A-share market will open slightly higher tomorrow, after the opening, it will again experience a fluctuating decline to find the bottom, with heavyweight stocks continuing to fluctuate and slide, and thematic stocks facing intensified differentiation; this implies that the A-share market will enter a differentiated trend tomorrow, with the exchange of high and low chips, clear strength and weakness, and such a trend is limited in both rises and falls, so there is no need to be pessimistic or optimistic about the A-share market tomorrow.

Perhaps the differentiation in the A-share market trend will be more intense tomorrow, with both large and small sectors and stocks undergoing differentiation, and the structural market will be staged again, for the following reasons:

Reason one: The style of the A-share market has changed, with previously high-rising hot spots experiencing catch-up declines, and continuously strong heavyweight stocks also catching up with the declines! On the contrary, the catch-up rise of thematic stocks is unsustainable, and this catch-up rise and decline trend will continue into tomorrow, so the A-share market will definitely follow a structural trend tomorrow.

Reason two: Due to the great turmoil in the global stock market, the stock market, funds, futures, crude oil, and foreign exchange markets have been fluctuating in recent trading days, affected by multiple international bearish news, causing the panic index to soar, and the overall environment is still unstable, with the global stock market still experiencing ups and downs. Affected by this, the A-share market will also be cautious tomorrow, and maintaining a fluctuation is most beneficial for both bulls and bears.

In summary, the overall trend of the A-share market today was to open high and close low, watching helplessly as the Japanese and Korean stock markets soared, with financial stocks leading the way down, and hot spot sectors plummeting, among other influences. Fortunately, the bulls came out at the end of the day to lift the market a bit, otherwise, the A-share market today would have been even more unattractive. However, overall, such a general rise in the market does not feel secure.

In conclusion, no matter how the A-share market performs tomorrow, it will ultimately not be able to escape the weak adjustment of the A-share market. It is best to view everything cautiously, not to be overly pleased with gains or saddened by losses, and to follow the trend and act accordingly. #Article First Launch Challenge#